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Irrational Exuberance Paperback – May 9, 2006

by Robert J. Shiller (Author)
4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 103 ratings
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As Robert Shiller’s new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts, the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets “has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” As we all, ordinary Americans and professional investors alike, crawl from the wreckage of our heedless bubble economy, the shrewd insights and sober warnings, and hard facts that Shiller marshals in this book are more invaluable than ever.

The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with.

Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed.
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Previous page
  1. Print length
    336 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Crown Business
  4. Publication date
    May 9, 2006
  5. Dimensions
    6.12 x 0.7 x 9.18 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0767923634
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0767923637
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Robert Shiller has done more than any other economist of his generation to document the less rational aspects of financial markets.” — Paul Krugman

“A modern classic of ‘serious’ economics that demands to be read, and can be enjoyed, by the interested nonspecialist.” –The Economist

“A dose of realism that serious investors will ignore at their peril.” —The Wall Street Journal

“The point of Irrational Exuberance is not to help investors dump their houses before the current exuberance fades. It is to deepen our understanding of the events we are watching as one bubble gives birth to another.” —The International Herald Tribune

“Irrational Exuberance [is] a dazzling, richly textured, provocative book . . . offering a cogent statement of the bears’ view of events to come. Shiller is not merely a bear—he is a grizzly.” —BusinessWeek

About the Author

Robert J. Shiller is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is the recipient of the 2000 Commonfund Prize, awarded for Best Contribution to Endowment Management Research, for Irrational Exuberance. He is also the author of Market Volatility and Macro Markets, which won the 1996 Paul A. Samuelson Award.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown Business; 2nd edition (May 9, 2006)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 336 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0767923634
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0767923637
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.12 x 0.7 x 9.18 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 103 ratings

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Robert J. Shiller

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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
4.4 out of 5
103 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

FinancialDave
5.0 out of 5 stars A Modern Classic of serious economics
Reviewed in the United States on February 20, 2012
Verified Purchase
Shiller takes a little know phrase uttered by Alan Greenspan, "irrational exuberance" and turns it into a best seller as no one else can.

He relates how people think they know more than they do and this in turn affects their investing behaviour. He calls this "magical thinking" - thoughts that they do not have to explain or justify to others.

Another aspect of overconfidence, as he points out, is that people tend to make judgements by looking for familar patterns and making an assumption that future patterns will resemble past patterns. This form of overconfidence, by many, is called "technical analysis." In my early years of investing, I spent my share of money on these "charting" systems, but now understand them for what they are - "irrational exuberence" and a waste of good money, that could be better invested elsewhere.

Good book and a must read for the serious investor.
3 people found this helpful
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aipuo
5.0 out of 5 stars Credible Exposition
Reviewed in the United States on June 23, 2010
Verified Purchase
The author first mentioned the twelve precipitating factors
for a bubble. Precipitating factors like capitalism explosion
and ownership society, new information technology, supportive
governmental monetary policies and analysts' optimistic forcast.

This ultimately resulted in a feedback loop which amplified
the 'story' behind the stock or even in a painting like Mona
Lisa. If a stock or any investment had a strong credible story
behind it, the story greatly enhanced the value of the investment.

How was this possible? It was through the channels of the media
and word-of-mouth. Word-of-mouth was cited to be more potent
though less accurate. The analogy of how ants communicate and
how epidermics spread was used to desbribe how bubbles formed.

"New-era thinking' was another reason bubbles formed. The advent
of automobiles and radio in the '20s; the television in the '50s;
and the internet in the '90s.

The book is well structured and support material is sufficient
to prove its point. One gripe is the complex and cumbersome
sentence syntax used. Commas were missing where they could be
inserted to make reading easier.
4 people found this helpful
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Marlana Creed
4.0 out of 5 stars The sociological and psychological implications of booms and busts
Reviewed in the United States on November 21, 2012
Verified Purchase
I usually do not fly through books on business, finance, or economics. Even as someone who is studying economics, I usually painfully press through business and economics books, but Irrational Exuberance was different. From the beginning I was hooked on all the statistics, graphs, and historical examples Robert Shiller crammed into this book. The journey you are brought on through this book is very rare for such an speculative, yet important topic.

Irrational Exuberance is broken up into five parts: structural factors, cultural factors, psychological factors, attempts to rationalize exuberance, and a call to action. With 12 chapters in all, this is only a 230-page book (excluding the notes, references, and index), so can be read fairly quickly.

At times this book can be very repetitive but I do believe that serves a purpose. Shiller is trying to the best of his ability to make you believe that the market is truly unpredictable and you do not have to have a MBA or a Ph.D in finance to succeed.

The third chapter of this book was definitely my favorite as it summed 12 of the precipitating factors that lead to the values of the stock market to increase so rapidly from 1982 until 2000. Some factors he goes into great detail with are the capitalist explosion, new information technology, the baby boom and bust, and an expansion in media reporting business news. All of these factors were so fascinating.

My favorite part from this books is when Shiller explains how many were attributing the peak of the market with the internet's birth instead of the actual reason that there was a 36% increase in S&P Composite real earnings followed by real earnings growth. "These events coincided roughly with the Internet's birth but in fact had little to do with the Internet. Instead the earnings growth was attributed by analysis to a continuation of slow recovery from 1990-91 recession, coupled by a weak dollar and strong foreign demand for U.S. Capital and technological exports, as well as cost-cutting initiatives by U.S. Companies."

The main topic of this book is the phenomenon of bubbles. Along that line also discussed was negative bubbles or crashes. I was shocked to see just how many bubbles there have been in the last century. There is a great chapter on new era thinking which guides you though the 20th century and into the 21st century, discussing the major bubbles that have occurred. Shiller uses data from countries around the world to see big 1 and 5 year increases or decreases in the sock market. Shiller uses other research to explain the tendency for the markets to do this. One think I really liked about Shiller's writing was that he usually backed up everything he said with credible data and research.

As an economics major, the psychological studies being incorporated with market influence was very interesting. Shiller has strong assumptions over rationality. In our classes, we are always taught that people are rational, but this book leads you to believe that they are more predictably irrational. This is highly discussed in Behavioral Economics, so it will be interesting to see how economists began to perceive the notion that people act irrationally.

Shiller remains unbiased throughout the book, which helps portray the accuracy of what he is writing about. He goes through different administrations to show how they have an affect on market expectations. For example, in Reagan's term there was also a republican house majority so many people believed the current administration to be pro-business.

This book is written so that anyone can pick it up, but I do recommend that you at least know a little financial vocabulary and theory. By checking Wikipedia or Investopedia whenever something unknown comes up can also be very helpful.

I believe that this is a great read for those interested in investing. It is very important to understand the historic trends of the stock market in order to be a smart investor. I would recommend this book to any of my friends and family members who have invested in the markets, or plan on doing so. This is a book to understand the behavior of finance, not exactly how to make money on the stock market. One may ague that you need the basic understanding of the markets to experience success, but Shiller might argue against that.
8 people found this helpful
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Michael Sandman
5.0 out of 5 stars Investors willing to think about data will benefit from reading this book
Reviewed in the United States on November 29, 2013
Verified Purchase
Shiller "predicted" the 2007/2008 housing crisis, which occurred a few years after the book was originally published. This edition is the third, and it includes an the updated introduction from the second edition, plus an interesting and insightful one for this version. You need to be a bit of an economics geek to get the most out of this interesting analysis of why the price-earnings ratio of stocks gets out of line with its historic trend. And you need to like thinking about data. If you fit the description, it's a well-written, almost exhaustive examination of the factors that drive the stock market and the housing market. Shiller isn't a screaming prophet of economic doom, but his analysis does induce caution about the current (late 2013) bull market.
2 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

ilia oussov
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in Canada on August 17, 2015
Verified Purchase
great book
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Kindle Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars good purchase
Reviewed in India on April 18, 2014
Verified Purchase
happy with the overall service and product quality. keep it up. a b c d e f g h i
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Pep Solé
5.0 out of 5 stars AN EXCELLENT BOOK
Reviewed in Spain on January 10, 2014
Verified Purchase
As a matter of fact, I knew what I asked for, so it was no surprise. Shiller is a Nobel and a brilliant writer too.
Mailing was fast, but the transporter (MRW) didn't came home. They called me and I hat to pick the book up at their premises.
One person found this helpful
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bsfrombelgium
5.0 out of 5 stars in due time, highly useful
Reviewed in France on October 13, 2009
Verified Purchase
This is book is really interesting as it puts things in a long term perspective and gives inputs from a wide range of studies, then stop concentrating on the financial crisis and how bad banks are, now you have a new tool to analyse the exceptional situation in which we were before the crisis started in 2007. there are an amazing lot of interesting figures, facts, studies... this is a must read for all person involved in the economic analysis or financial manager. this book reads rather easily and is truely helpful.
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PRAVIN KUMAR SINGH
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in India on December 14, 2016
Verified Purchase
good
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